MALONE — The National Weather Service and forecasters for the Old Farmers' Almanac couldn't disagree more on what travelers can expect for Thanksgiving.
Burlington-based meteorologists say the jet stream will continue to drag mild weather into the North Country from the Deep South.
"We should be at seasonal normals across the area through most of the end of the month," said Eric Erinson of the Weather Service.
He consulted data from the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
"There is a pattern where most of our conditions are coming from the west and south, rather than the north from Canada.
"If this trend continues, over the next 10 days, we'll have normal precipitation, but it will be in the form of rainfall, not snow," he said.
On the other hand, the Farmers' Almanac has predicted the season's first heavy snowstorm and cold temperatures will arrive next weekend.
Forecasters for the Dublin, N.H., publication states that the region should "watch for a snowstorm around Thanksgiving" and call for "heavy snow northeast, turning cold" for Nov. 21 to 25, with "rain, cold and snow" to bring November to an end.
But Erinson and his colleagues don't buy it.
They say an El Nino, a periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean waters, is causing below-normal conditions in California and the western United States, bringing more rain into Texas and the Southwest.
And a jet stream is pulling that milder weather to the east and into northern New York while at the same time preventing colder fronts from moving down from Canada.
"That is telling us that for the rest of November, December and January, we'll be at normal or milder temperatures," Erinson said.
"The jet stream fluctuates, and because of that, it can stall and make a system hang around for a week or two, which is what we've been seeing here in November."
Almanac entries predict December will kick off with snow and colder temperatures, warning to "watch for other snowy periods in mid-to-late December and mid-to-late January."
December's temperatures are to be an average of 2.5 degrees above normal or about 28 degrees, it states.
But each week of the forecast calls for snow and a mixture of snow and rain.
Santa Claus should have no problem bringing a white Christmas if the Farmers' Almanac is correct because the forecast for Dec. 24 to 27 says there will be snow with sunny weather and cold temperatures.
Erinson said his National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration information does not predict out far enough to tell what Christmas might look like for travelers.
But the trend from last year suggests it will be a snowy Christmas.
E-mail Denise A. Raymo at: draymo@pressrepublican.com
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