Report studies climate change in Champlain Valley

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READ THE REPORT

To read "Climate Change in the Champlain Basin," visit www.nature.org/champlainclimatereport.

To order copies of the report, send requests by e-mail to vermont@tnc.org.

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July 11, 2010

By JEFF MEYERS Staff Writer The Press Republican Sun Jul 11, 2010, 03:28 AM EDT

KEENE VALLEY — A report on the impact of climate change on the Lake Champlain watershed is helping researchers approach a global issue from a local perspective.

The New York and Vermont chapter of the Adirondack Conservancy recently released the report, "Climate Change in the Champlain Basin: What Natural-Resource Managers Can Expect and Do," as one of the first efforts nationally to assess climate change on a watershed scale.

STRATEGIES

"Over the last couple of years, scientific evidence has become more and more sure of itself that climate change is happening," said Michelle Brown, staff scientist for the Nature Conservancy, Adirondack Chapter.

"Conservation organizations are interested in what kinds of things we can do about it, what strategies can we implement to face the threat as it becomes more and more real.

"Because of that, we commissioned this work to look at what the actual impacts of climate change are in a place we care about."

LOCAL RESEARCH

Paul Smith's College professor Curt Stager and journalist Mary Thill wrote and researched the 42-page report, which identifies trends in temperatures and other weather-related reports over the past several decades and trends that are expected to develop in the future.

"The Nature Conservancy asked me to look at what has happened recently and what computer models look like to the end of the century," Stager said.

"What we've found is that the region has warmed about 2 degrees in the past 30 years, which is a little faster than the Northeast and other parts of the world."

Stager combined weather records from several sources to identify temperature ranges and precipitation changes.

"The rainfall and snow are pretty important factors," he said. "It hasn't been a steady increase, but precipitation has jumped about three inches per year."

LAKE LEVEL, ICE

Easily observable evidence of that can be found along the lake's shoreline, where the water level has risen a full foot, on average, since the 1970s.

Winter activity on the lake is another identifier. In the 1800s and most of the 20th century, the lake froze solid just about every year. But the latter decades of the century, the open lake has remained ice free more regularly.

"The main focus of this report was for professionals working on the lakes and rivers of the watershed," Stager said.

"It's for a technically savvy audience that might not have information on climate change from a watershed perspective."

Warming temperatures and lake waters could translate into changing ecosystems, something Stager thinks researchers and legislators alike should have a grasp on as changes approach.

"We're not going to stop climate change. What we're trying to do is look ahead of the curve, what is likely to come our way and what can we do to be proactive.

"We don't necessarily have to invent a whole new set of techniques and programs but look at how we can improve what we're doing now."

PLAN BEING REVISED

Eric Howe, staff scientist for the Lake Champlain Basin Program, appreciates the local perspective the report provides regional scientists.

"We keep hearing climate change is a global thing. This clearly shows that it is in the Lake Champlain Basin. Whether it's happening because of human activities or a shift in the climate, it's happening one way or the other."

The Basin Program is working on a revision of its Opportunities for Action management plan for Lake Champlain, and climate change will play a major role in that revision, Howe added.

Several agencies, including the Department of Environmental Conservation, also played a role in the project by reviewing the draft report before publication.

DEC Wildlife Biologist Joe Racette called it an excellent report that will pave the way for further discussion.

"Most of us in the scientific community are familiar with climate change on a global scale. But we don't work on a global scale; we work locally. My jurisdiction is limited to eight counties. What I need is to further this discussion on a regional basis."

The report identifies possible future trends that would raise average temperatures between 1 and 6 degrees under moderate greenhouse-gas emissions and between 6 and 11 degrees under extreme emissions.

Nature Conservancy officials believe the report will be helpful in pulling together partners in regional agencies, state and local governments and agricultural users to prepare for climate-change impact.

E-mail Jeff Meyers at: jmeyers@pressrepublican.com