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November 18, 2008

Experts assess the carbon equation

Keene students set optimistic tone; experts assess carbon equation

By KIM SMITH DEDAM

TUPPER LAKE -- A wide-ranging conversation about Adirondack climate change began with the simplest example of what to do.

Alicia Ashe, a senior at Keene Central School, spoke to an auditorium filled to capacity about green efforts at their school community of 169 students.

Since she was in kindergarten, the school has composted lunchroom leftovers.

School Superintendent Cynthia Ford-Johnston said the program started as an effort to save money.

"Approximately 27 pounds is diverted from the landfill each day," Johnston said.

The uneaten food takes four to 10 months to compost and then goes back into the school garden, where students grow more food.

The first inclination to save money on trash grew into a long-term teaching program that has since become a habit for students, Johnston said.

Ashe believes one town can make a difference to combat climate change, even in composting lunch leftovers from 169 kids a day.

It adds up to more than 35 tons of reused waste in 13 years.

"If you start in small towns, one town means a lot," Ashe said.

Keene's message, Johnston said, was offered as a "ray of hope," amidst a more harrowing outlook.

Some 191 stakeholders, from scientists to students, signed up for the two-day Adirondack Climate Change conference at the Wild Center.

The first presentations framed the larger problem, and by 1 p.m., planning groups were busy talking in every corner of the museum.

Carter Bales, director emeritus of economic advisers at McKinsey & Company, recapped economic goals derived from a national summit held here last summer.

Total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions -- the collective American carbon footprint -- was 7.2 gigatons (billions of tons) of carbon dioxide in 2005.

In a business-as-usual scenario, that will rise to 10 billion gigatons by 2030.

The "Message to America" contains recommendations to spend $1.06 trillion to retool the energy economy by 2030, including $560 billion into new power generation; $370 billion on transportation for what Bales called a "redesign of Detroit;" and $160 billion into retrofitting buildings.

In a new cap-and-trade market, 100 percent of carbon allowances would be auctioned off, putting nearly $200 billion into energy coffers, Bales said.

"And that money goes right back into the economy to support energy efficiency, as well as to support what we call deployment -- helping bring certain technologies full scale."

TEMPERATURES RISE

Without any changes, greenhouse gases will force temperatures in the Northeast by nearly 8 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists.

Dr. Peter Frumhoff, who chaired the group's three-year study "Confronting Climate Change in the Northeast," said that even in the best scenario, the climate here is expected to warm about 5 degrees by the end of this century.

"No matter what emissions (target) we pick, some warming is built in, to which we will have to adapt."

At the lower greenhouse-gas emission levels, the Adirondack climate will slowly become more like the Blue Ridge Mountains of West Virginia.

Climate change is poised to fundamentally change the Adirondack landscape, Frumhoff said, and the greatest uncertainty is what we are going to do about it.

Conference attendees got busy looking at how to plan for changes to the forests, water, winter season and small-town economies.

"I encourage you to think about how your choices here will drive the national will," Frumhoff said.

By the end of today, recommendations will emerge toward an Adirondack Climate Action Plan.

kdedam@pressrepublican.com

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