Economy, not election, likely to affect future Canada-U.S. relations

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October 12, 2008

By DAN HEATH The Press Republican Sun Oct 12, 2008, 12:00 AM EDT

PLATTSBURGH -- The troubled U.S. economy will have more to do with relations with Canada than the results of the elections in both countries.

Dr. Christopher Kirkey, director of the Center for the Study of Canada at Plattsburgh State University, said what is unfolding politically in Canada takes a back seat to what is unfolding economically. The Canadian dollar has been sliding this week, valued by the Bank of Canada at 90 cents U.S. on Tuesday and 87 cents U.S. at noon on Thursday.

For the North Country, there should be concerns about that decline. Local retailers have benefited from the tremendous boom in the number of Quebec residents, especially those from the Montreal area, who have traveled to the region.

"If the dollar keeps sputtering, some people may reconsider that trip to Plattsburgh," Kirkey said.

He said top Canadian economists are nearly unanimous in the belief that if Canada is not already in the midst of a significant recession, it will be soon.

It will be even more important to market this region in Canada, and Quebec in particular, Kirkey said.

A failing economy could also make it more difficult to get orders for things like transit authority buses or railcars, he said. On the other hand, people may look to increase use of public transportation if money is tight.

The Canadian General Election is set for Tuesday, Oct. 15. Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister Stephen Harper called for the election Sept. 7.

MINORITY GOVERNMENT

Canada has had a minority government since the last election in January 2006. The Conservative party doesn't have enough seats in the House of Commons to pass legislation without votes from members of other parties.

Kirkey said the Conservatives are the party of center-right wing ideology, the Liberals are more center-left and the NDP is left of the Liberal Party.

Bloc Quebecois promotes a pro-Quebec agenda, but is only represented in Quebec. That party stands to benefit from a minority government, Kirkey said.

Kirkey said the Conservative party's foreign policy is overwhelmingly focused on the United States. Unfortunately, whoever wins the U.S. election is going to be preoccupied with solving domestic economic problems.

Harper's numbers in public-opinion polls at the time he called for the election were at an all-time high, he said.

"It looked like they had a good shot at getting a majority government," Kirkey said.

That caused some concern that they would be able to pass even more right-wing legislation, because they wouldn't need opposition support, Kirkey said.

HURT BY DEBATES

The party had picked up support in Ontario and Quebec, which have the largest number of seats in the House of Commons. Kirkey said that was due in part to Liberal leader Stéphane Dion's difficulty in resonating with the Canadian people.

Now, after two televised debates, the numbers for Harper and the Conservatives are dropping. Kirkey said Harper didn't do well in the debates, because he failed to offer many specifics on the party's platform.

He said Harper's lack of reaction to the economic crisis in the United States is also to blame.

"He's seen as a good manager of the economy, but he didn't detail what his plan is," Kirkey said.

As the Canadian economy started to list, the public is looking for someone who will say the government is going to work for them, he said.

"I think they were disappointed by the lack of specifics on what his plan is," Kirkey said.

Harper was also hurt in the province of Quebec by comments that indicated he didn't think culture was an important aspect in the election. Kirkey said that is a huge issue in that tradition-rich society.

Since those events, voters have started to drift from support of the Conservative Party. In Quebec, they're going to the Bloc Québécois (headed by Gilles Duceppe) and the New Democratic Party (NDP, headed by Jack Layton). In Ontario, the are going to the NDP and the Liberals, Kirkey said.

The Toronto Globe and Mail reported a Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll released Thursday showed the Conservatives with 32 percent of support, the Liberals with 27 percent, the NDP with 19 percent, the Green Party at 12 percent and the Bloc Québécois with 8 percent.

While no one expects the Conservatives to lose, Kirkey said they could wind up with a smaller minority than they had when the election was called. That would require increased cooperation from the other parties to pass their legislation.

ROLE IN AFGHANISTAN

If the economic mess hadn't happened, the Canadian presence in Afghanistan would have been a much bigger focus of the election, Kirkey said. At first, Canada had mainly a peacekeeping force led first by the United Nations and later by NATO.

There was a big shift to more of a combat role in 2006. There are presently about 2,500 Canadian troops and support personnel in the southern province of Kandahar.

Ninety-seven Canadian troops have died, as have three civilian aid workers, Kirkey said.

"This is a hugely unpopular military engagement in Canada," he said.

dheath@pressrepublican.com