New Yorkers nervous about economy

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July 9, 2007

By WILLIAM KATES The Press Republican Mon Jul 09, 2007, 12:00 AM EDT

SYRACUSE -- A growing number of New Yorkers describe the state economy as worsening and only one out of three are optimistic about the state's financial well-being in the year ahead, according to an annual poll.

The number of New Yorkers who described the state economy as worsening over the past year increased from 36 percent in 2006 to 43 percent in 2007, according to the Empire State Poll, a yearly telephone survey conducted by Cornell University's Survey Research Institute.

Past Empire polls had shown New Yorkers expressing growing faith in the state economy since 2003, when confidence was at its lowest with nearly 80 percent of respondents saying conditions were worsening.

"What's there to feel good about?" said Barry Watkins, 50, of Syracuse, an office furniture and supplies salesman. "There's high taxes. Companies are closing and we're losing jobs. The young people are leaving for places with a better future." Watkins said he's had to change jobs twice in the past 10 years.

SRI Director Yasamin Miller said the survey did not ask respondents why they described the economy as they did. It did, however, reveal regional differences.

Half of upstate residents believed the state economy worsened over the past year, while only 9 percent thought it had improved. Downstate, 27 percent of residents thought the economy had improved, while only 39 percent said it was worse.

Meanwhile, 34 percent of New Yorkers expected the state economy to improve during the next year, up from about 23 percent in 2006 and the most optimistic outlook uncovered by the poll during its five years.

The optimism was greater downstate (39 percent) than upstate (26 percent) and is likely a carry over from a new governor taking office, Miller said. Downstate residents may have been buoyed because that region has seen more of an economic resurgence than upstate, she said.

A majority of state residents (55 percent) reported that their personal economic situation remained unchanged in 2007. It got worse for 22 percent, according to the poll.

The poll also found four in 10 respondents expected the year ahead would be better for them financially.

"The dim view of the state of the economy is probably not warranted," said Rochelle Ruffer, an economist with the Center for Governmental Research, an independent public policy center in Rochester, N.Y.

The state saw 1 percent growth in employment from May 2006 to May 2007 and a 4.1 percent unemployment rate statewide during that span, lower than a year ago, Ruffer said.

"My experience has been that the cutbacks of the big manufacturers make the big news and create a perception that things are going badly. The growth comes from small firms that do not make the news," she said.

Taxes remained among the most pressing issues for New Yorkers, both at the community and state levels, cited by nearly one in every five residents (18 percent). However, it was considerably more of a concern for upstate residents, with 29 percent listing it as the top problem, compared to 9 percent of people downstate.

The Empire State Poll is conducted annually by Cornell researchers to measure New Yorkers' sentiments on key and timely issues.

The poll was conducted by telephone with 800 New York residents between Jan. 25 and March 28, 2007, and its results released exclusively to The Associated Press. For purposes of the poll, downstate was defined as New York, Rockland, Kings, Richmond, Westchester, Suffolk, Queens, Nassau and Bronx counties. The poll's margin of error was 3.5 percent for statewide results and 4.9 percent for upstate-downstate comparisons.