Experts say flu isn't as deadly as first thought

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May 1, 2009

By KIM SMITH DEDAM The Press Republican Fri May 01, 2009, 11:28 PM EDT

PAUL SMITH'S — Emerging evidence suggests the outbreak of swine flu is not proving very lethal, statistically, a top Trudeau Institute scientist said Friday.

"Of the reported deaths in Mexico, not many were confirmed as swine flu," Dr. David Woodland told the Biology 102 class at Paul Smith's College.

Woodland, a global expert on influenza, is director and president of Trudeau Institute in Saranac Lake, where scientists are developing pandemic influenza vaccine in conjunction with the U.S. Navy.

He said that only 12 of the 176 deaths associated with the disease in Mexico are confirmed to have been caused by swine flu, according to reports from Mexican health officials.

In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control confirmed 141 cases of the new flu in 19 states.

There has been only one death, that of a Mexican boy who was visiting relatives in Texas.

REGULAR FLU
Woodland reminded the auditorium full of first-year biology students that 20,000 to 30,000 people die in the United States from influenza every year, offering perspective from the front lines of science.

"I don't think all of the scary things you're hearing in some newspapers will come to pass," he said, listing several ways in which the United States is prepared to manage an outbreak of Influenza A H1N1, the as-yet-scientifically-unnamed virus dubbed swine flu.

VACCINE
The virus responds readily to tamivir, a vaccine stockpiled by the United States to stop the spread of influenza.

Scientists know the genetic makeup of the new virus, Woodland said, and a vaccine targeting the disease is already being made. It should be ready by October, the start of the next flu season, he said.

The current epidemic is being called pandemic because it is "a complete shift in genetics of the virus," he explained to students in very plain terms. "This virus is problematic because it does spread human to human."

Woodland spoke about how influenza jumps between humans, pigs and birds.

Swine flu is different from the avian flu outbreaks in Asia that caused concern in recent years because it is shared from one person to another.

Avian flu spreads from birds to humans but not between people.

"But will there be a (swine flu) pandemic? We simply don't have enough information," Woodland said.

BE PREPARED
Dr. Dawn Jelley-Gibbs, a Trudeau Institute scientist working on a single vaccine to treat every type of influenza, provided students with a current-events lesson in virology before joining in a public panel discussion.

With the scientists were Adirondack Medical Center Registered Nurse Mim Tracy, the hospital's infection-control and risk-management manager, and Lorraine Kourofsky, prevention supervisor at Franklin County Public Health.

"So far, it's been a mild illness," Tracy said of medical reports from cases in New York.

Kourofsky said that though the disease may not be as severe as first thought, it is still better for people to be ready.

"We want to make sure people have all the information they need."

hyped
College students scribbled notes from the scientists' lecture and asked questions.

Matthew Parker, 18, from Richmond, Vt., wanted to know how long it takes to make flu vaccine.

Usually 10 months, Woodland said, but the Centers for Disease Control is moving quickly and expects to have vaccine for swine flu by October.

In an interview after class, Parker said he views the swine-flu outbreak as just another flu added to the world mix of disease.

"I'm just living every day to the fullest."

Fellow student Seth Crevison, 18, of Rochester, has a sister in middle school who is frightened by what she sees going on.

"She has been seeing kids wearing masks. I told her to just take precautions using good hygiene. I feel the swine flu (outbreak) is like the bird flu; it's something for the media to get us all hyped up about."

E-mail Kim Smith Dedam at: kdedam@pressrepublican.com